welcome everyone and thank you so much

for joining us today I'm Steve

zipperstein uh from UCLA I want to

welcome all of you to our very very

important webinar focusing on the impact

of last week's United States

presidential election on the Middle East

North Africa region first uh before we

begin I'd like to take a moment to

express our sincere gratitude to our

co-sponsors from uccla the UCLA burkel

Center for international relations the

Unison San zarian Center for Israel

studies uh in my home department where

I'm uh very very honored to teach the

lusen school of public affairs

Department of Public Policy uh before we

begin I just wanted to uh advise you of

a few housekeeping items first of all

well you can see us we here on the panel

cannot see or hear you we are recording

today's presentation the video will be

available on the UCLA Center for Middle

East development website our YouTube and

Facebook pages in the coming days if you

are joining us via Zoom please note the

following uh please note the chat window

at the bottom of the screen where we

will share announcements during the talk

with you in that area the chat box

however you will not be able to use the

chat box to add any of your own comments

instead if you have questions for our

speakers please type them in the Q and a

window which you can also find at the

bottom of your screen so please use Q&A

at the bottom of your screen for any

questions that you would like to ask our

speakers when you do so when you use the

Q&A and you type your question please

make sure to include your name your

country and or your affiliation and we

will announce your name your country

Andor your affiliation when I read the

questions to our panelists and to all of

you only those of us on the CED team

will be able ble to see your questions

in some qu in some cases we might answer

questions uh in writing in that Q&A

window for others to see we do ask

however uh given our time limitations

and we're going to go for about an hour

and a half or so uh in order to take as

many of your questions as possible

please keep your questions concise short

to the point no speeches no essays

please we want to be able to get as many

of them in uh as possible uh for those

of you joining us via our YouTube

platform please note you will not be

able to ask a question because the

comments uh section in our YouTube

platform uh has been disabled well we

are very we are very honored to be

joined by three very very distinguished

speakers today uh I've asked each of

them to make opening remarks of around

10 minutes uh I'll introduce them one at

a time uh our first Speaker who will be

joining us momentarily uh is my dear

friend Mr Zev first from New York City

Zev is a leading Global political

business and communication strategist

who is advised political leaders foreign

principles and corporate Executives of

Fortune 100 companies he's the chairman

and chief executive officer of First

International resources an international

corporate and political consulting firm

he founded in

1992 uh Mr first specializes in a whole

range of activities I'll just list a

couple uh he provides strategic Counsel

on highly sensitive political matters uh

he is a specialist in crisis management

he brings a unique perspective of

someone who has worked at the

intersection of business and politics

for more than 30 years Zev welcome

please unmute uh and uh I will turn the

floor over to you go ahead Steve thank

you very much uh very gracious and I

enjoy hearing about myself so thank you

um I would like to begin with a very

quick and

Broad uh not necessarily analysis but

the results of the election uh that took

place uh exactly one week ago here in

the United

States and I would like to begin with

everyone keeping in mind throughout this

session that the president-elect Donald

Trump is not running again and therefore

having my next election in the back of

my head all the time is not going to be

a factor in the conduct in the

formulation and conduct of American

foreign policy uh whether it uh affects

uh the Middle East North Africa or

anywhere else in the world or for that

matter all of his political uh internal

political moves here in the United

States that being said uh I would think

that it would be important to keep in

mind that the big the biggest swings to

Trump in last week's election were

swings from the blue States from states

that generally vote Democrat and vot is

in these

traditional Democrat States

strongholds uh counties whatever had a

lower vote turnout this year than they

had in 2020 and at the same time the

counties with the

biggest uh Republican voters delivered

more than 1 million actually 1.2 million

more votes for Trump than they did in 20

and counties with the biggest Democratic

victories in 2020 those for Biden

delivered almost two million votes less

for uh for vice president for vice

president

Harris uh the democ rats basically

failed to focus early enough on on

inflation as a key economic problem for

President Biden and for this

Administration not withstanding that the

United States in dealing with postco

inflation today is in a far better

position than just about every European

country the fact of the matter is that

uh they did not uh use uh and perform

and respond to the entire issue of

inflation as it affected the average

voter here in the United States

throughout the campaign uh postco

inflation postco inflation has taken

down many many if not all

incumbent uh governments that had

elections and I refer specifically to

Britain last year or two years ago Japan

South Africa South Korea in France uh

president G lost his Parliament and so

while clearly everyone is now focused on

what happened here in the United States

uh incumbents over the last year or two

or even three uh have not fared very

well when they went when they went to a

general

vote moving away from what happened in

the United States and how this can or

cannot or will or will not affect uh

Middle East North Africa region uh I am

frankly

um pleasantly uh surprised or surprised

may be the wrong word but I'm certainly

uh uh not negative to see that the names

of the

beginning uh of Trump's National

Security team and I refer specifically

to the Secretary of State while not

official yet uh Rubio and Mike Waltz uh

who is rumored or has been uh said to

lead the National Security Council as

the president's National advisor they

are hawks on the subject of Iran and on

the and certainly on China

and there is some push back by having

those names put into the public

discourse uh that demonstrates at least

for me that we're dealing with and we

will be dealing with not an isolationist

foreign policy but a muscular foreign

policy uh and I think we should keep

that in mind as we move forward over the

next uh several uh several weeks and

months not years I think that

Trump the president-elect will press the

Saudis to normalize ties with Israel and

clearly the kingdom is going to need uh

something from the from Israel Ray the

Palestinians and I believe that this

actually could lead to friction between

uh prime minister Netanyahu and uh

president-elect Trump let's remember

that uh four years ago when prime

minister of Israel called Biden to

congratulate him on winning the

presidency in January 21 first of all it

took the Prime Minister two weeks to

call to call uh Biden but nevertheless

when he did um Trump publicly excoriated

him and uh their relationship ship for a

good two and a half years after that was

to be kind complicated if not

non-existent nevertheless since the

election last week uh we have been

witnessed to and we have heard from the

prime minister of Israel that he has

spoken to Trump three times and uh I

believe that uh the question mark that

we all have uh in so far as it affects

the Mina region is uh how will the

bilateral us Israeli relationship affect

the United States

uh as well as Israel in the Middle East

and North Africa uh let me stop there

because we could uh get into q&as and we

can expand on that but thank you very

much okay thank you so much and thank

you also by the way for giving us your

uh analysis uh regarding the impact of

postco inflation here and elsewhere

around the world very very interesting

uh and also for your initial reaction to

at least some of the names that we're

hearing in the media uh Mike Waltz from

National National Security adviser Marco

Rubio nothing official yet but th those

are apparently the the picks for those

positions and I'll have more questions

I'm sure the audience will as well about

some of the other very very key roles a

little bit further down as well as uh at

the Secretary of Defense level which we

have not yet at least as of right now

heard about our next speaker another

very very close friend of CED and uh and

me personally I'm very very grateful to

say uh is Jay footlick you see him there

on the screen Jay served as Special

Assistant to President Bill Clinton in

the white house where Jay worked on a

range of domestic and foreign policy

issues including extensive work in the

Middle East and North Africa region Jay

also served as the president's liaison

President Clinton's liaison to the

American Jewish Community you see he's

quite young he must have been a teenager

at the time um and I could go on and on

and on about Jay uh who I will only say

this uh in the last several months Jay

has done heroic work heroic work uh

trying to um assist with uh U bringing

home the hostages from Gaza and someday

maybe the full story will be known about

what Jay has done Jay Welcome to our

webinar the floor is yours for 10

minutes thank you thank you very much

Steve for your uh your very warm

introduction great to be up here as well

with uh with Zev and and Mara um I'll

touch for for for just a a moment on

some of the things that that Zev

mentioned regarding the election last

week and then move to three short points

uh about what we perhaps can expect uh

from a second Trump Administration Visa

be the Mena region um I think first of

all

um Mr Trump may not have uh an election

or reelect uh behind him but there there

will be midterm elections and those

creep up rather quickly as everybody on

this call I think understands uh

especially here in Washington where the

entire us house will be up and a third

of the US Senate so he does have to in a

sense uh be aware of that time uh time

reference in that time frame as well and

in the past um when the president has

had both the house and the Senate uh

within the same

uh party control it hasn't always led to

a smooth and easy Pathway to enacting

legislation and into pushing uh the

president's priorities so we'll we'll

have to see and I think there will be

many months and perhaps years where we

go back uh and analyze the results of uh

of this past uh election um we have to

also I think remember that the vice

president had a very very short period

of time to sort of jump in

um and there's a lot of Monday morning

quarterbacking a lot of should have what

of what we could have done if we had had

uh a different situation and more

perhaps lead time um again we'll leave

that to the pundants to uh to talk about

uh in the future I'll try and hit on

three uh three points as it relates to

what we may be able to expect or or look

into the crystal ball and see moving

forward from a second Trump term one for

anyone who says they can't look into

this crystal wall and see something with

any definitive nature uh you know don't

buy a piece of real estate from them um

if there's one Hallmark of this uh of

trump looking back to the first term

it's that lack of certainty lack of

predictability there were certain

tactics um certain notes that were

sounded uh but overarching strategy was

not their their strong point and so I

think um trying to to sit here now and

craft and predict what the priorities

will be I think is is a little bit murky

and a little bit difficult uh I think

it's also important to remember that

foreign policy generally was not a

driving force from what we're seeing uh

in in exit polling and and and so forth

there were a lot of other issues have

referenced the economy and so forth um

and just generally speaking Americans

with few exceptions don't really pay

that much attention to to foreign policy

now it's a unique time for sure with a

war on Europe and a war uh in the Middle

East uh region and that does occupy a

lot of uh time and space but for the

average American voter those are not

things that typically Drive uh

participation again exceptions can be

made for uh the American Jewish

Community American Arabs and Muslims

perhaps uh in in in Michigan and a few

Pockets uh here in there but mostly I

think it's it's domestic issues and um

and so I think it's it's hard to predict

and I think uh our allies and

adversaries around the globe are sort

of finding it difficult to read the te

leaves as well and to to understand

where a second Trump term may go uh the

second thing I'd say is what do we know

about how the president conducts policy

well it tends to be very transactional

right so um you know if there's one

thing we hear from travel to Israel and

Gulf States in particular there's a

particular preference uh or um uh I

think for this nature of of policymaking

tell us what you expect of us tell us

what you want Don't lecture to us about

this that and the other Visa human

rights and so forth lay out clearly what

we can do for you and what you can do

for us Shake on it build some hotels and

and you know and move on

and so um whether it's expanding the

Abraham Accords which I assume will be

on the on the agenda it's a it's a

foreign policy achievement under uh

under the Trump Administration again we

all know that there were um elements

throughout the region having these

conversations going back a decade or two

but we'll give credit to the former

president and his team for clinching the

deal they clinched whether or not

they're going to be able to to expand uh

with with Saudi or gutter or or perhaps

some Asian countries I think remains to

be seen and my guess is that they will

invest a fair amount of time doing so

but they will have to balance it with

isolationist voices not only within

their own party and on Capitol Hill but

the the the vice president elect has uh

has also voiced

isolationist uh views uh he's talked

about uh the the the desire to for

example uh wrap up uh what's happening

in the region and the lack of desire to

go to war with uh with Iran for example

now again I'm not saying that's a good

thing or a bad thing it just gives us an

idea of where the vice president is um I

I think again from past experience we we

understand that in a second Trump

Administration the most important voice

will be one and only one um but there

will be others uh around the table that

will try and exert

uh some um some political pressure and

try and influence where the president

goes on policy um I'll go to the third

point which is I I agree with Zev that

the the choices so far I I I describe

them as somewhat conventional in terms

of what we are hearing on the foreign

policy front from a a sitting uh

Congressman to a sitting US senator

these are not folks that have been

brought in from the outside that

typically would have trouble getting

confirmation again if they they

obviously control the Senate

confirmation will be less of an issue

but still these are colleagues and their

usually is some kind of professional

courtesy that is extended so while we're

waiting for Jay to rejoin us Mara if you

could get ready I'm going to introduce

you and um we'll come back to Jay when

he's able to reestablish his connection

um we're very thrilled to have a very

very distinguished academic Professor uh

Mara Rudman who is the James Schlesinger

distinguished professor at the

University of Virginia's Miller Center

where she directs the ripples of Hope

project aimed at identifying practical

approaches to help Democratic leaders

resolve key challenges she also served

uh in various positions in the United

States government uh including as Deputy

assistant to the president for National

Security Affairs and both the Obama and

Clinton administrations Deputy Envoy for

the office of the special Envoy for

Middle East PE

at the state department assistant

administrator for the Middle East at the

US agency for International Development

and his chief counsel to the house

Foreign Affairs committee Jay we'll come

back to you after we hear uh from

Professor Amara Rudnick the floor is

yours for 10 minutes and thank you for

joining us thanks very much uh it's

great to be with all of you uh and to

have this important conversation I

appreciate it I should say I'm very

definitely a professor from practice so

I should not be confused with anyone

from Academia that's not been where my

uh where my career has been it's been

much more in the intersection I would

say of politics policy and process uh

with the National Security lens and

that's very much how I how I come to

this conversation um I think there are

five key things I want to stress and

hopefully I can do it in in less than 10

minutes um the first is

that I think the way that uh I and many

of my

colleagues who were certainly very

disappointed just to be honest about the

results of this election but how we are

looking at things going forward is is

dividing into defense and offense and

and I think it's not just those in the

opposition in the United States who are

looking at things that way in other

words I think they're framing when I say

defense it's what things would this

potential uh Trump Administration Break

irreparably um and uh and that and in

those areas uh those in opposition need

to uh need to have a strategy going

forward that can ideally um keep things

from being broken that cannot be fixed

going forward and then the being on

offense is looking um both at making

sure that as a voice in opposition

there's a vision going forward uh for

the country and I would argue for the

world uh the United States role in the

world that's an affirmative vision and

that uh folks can pivot to as they're

articulating what they disagree with

about uh what is likely to be the

president Trump's vision for the world

um as executed through particular policy

actions and I don't think this breaks up

on party lines uh necessarily at all I

think the question of isolationist

versus internationalist is a challenge

that within the United States we have in

both of our main political parties um

and we have the tensions between them

and as Jay pointed out so well um the

vice president is a great ex the vice

president designate um JD Vance is a

great example of the isolationist strain

within his party um I think that uh for

Mr trump it can go back and forth a

little bit less consistent uh and I I

agree that we see in um the two

appointments that have been floated is

seemingly the way the administration

will go in terms of the Secretary of

State designate in Marco Rubio and the

potential that Mike Walt is the National

Security advisor um I agree with Jay's

characterization those are more

conventional choices um as I believe has

been pointed out uh who gets named as

the secretary of defense will be hugely

consequential uh not only because every

person that served the Secretary of

Defense under President Trump in his

first Administration came out against

him and warned of his dangers um and

some of the names have been floated

there uh would be

um a significant concern for the country

and for the world and frankly for the

United States uh military as well um and

that is why my second point is that

there's a key race that I don't believe

my colleagues have mentioned that's

going to tell us a lot about what

happens and that is in the Senate

leadership race um the the competition

for major leader in the Senate since

Mitch McConnell announced some time ago

that he would not be uh would not be

standing as Majority Leader uh as a

Republican leader in this coming

upcoming session of Congress and so

there's a race and there are three

candidates two of those three

candidates I would say are very much

both from the

internationalist uh uh grouping within

the Republican party and they're also

institutionalists and the third is much

less so on both count

uh and that would be Rick Scott from

Florida uh he also has to date had much

less uh support within the Republican

caucus in the Senate we will see one of

the things I do note about the two uh

individuals who have been uh floated to

be named uh for Secretary of State and

for National Security advisers they're

both from Florida and uh and Mr Trump's

uh Chief of Staff uh designate for the

White House Susie WS is also Floridian

and Rick Scott is from Florida and so

we'll see what Dynamics play out but I

would just urge people to look to watch

closely on what happens in the Senate

leadership race um and the timing of it

Mitch McConnell has been criticized by

folks in the Trump camp for for um

putting those elections very soon I

believe next week um very early and uh

and two of those three candidates have

been under a fair amount of um criticism

from the T Carlson's and others of the

of the right-wing Camp uh so we'll see

some key directionals coming out of that

of who emerges who is elected by their

colleagues in the Republican caucus on a

ballot that's a that is uh that is is a

ballot where people don't have to no one

knows how any individual has voted um

it's a blind uh ballot for the Senate

leadership uh my third point is I think

I would urge folks not to look at things

as International as foreign policy and

domestic policy but more look at

National Security and economic security

for the United States because those

issues increasingly emerging and again

this is regardless of party and so while

I may disagree strongly with many of the

uh points that uh that Donald Trump ran

on this campaign what I would say I

think he comes at it in a different way

but I think where there's a similarity

between the Biden Administration and

what would be the incoming Trump

Administration is seeing that the United

States and its role in the world uh and

the role of the president in

safeguarding in Safety and Security of

the American people is uh the roles of

looking at at what the United States

needs to do economically and how we

interact with other countries on that

score and what we do in terms of

National Security are very much

interrelated um and so that that brings

me to my fourth point which is that uh

which is that

um when when we when we try to uh Divine

or watch what the Trump Administration

uh may be doing or planning um or

executing with respect to the Middle

East region I would First Take it up a

level in other words looking at the

global landscape and how the middle east

region fits into that Global landscape

and what do I mean by that United States

um is uh United States and and others uh

as well Europeans pretty much many

others throughout the world have uh have

been subject to had to anticipate the uh

Partnerships uh however informal that

are increasingly occurring between

Russia China Iran and North

Korea and so when we look at the middle

east region for example looking at the

Dynamics with Iran knowing that

President Trump has very close

relationships uh with uh Putin and uh

that may play out in a number of ways

that a number of folks in me are quite

concerned about with respect to Ukraine

it may also play out in ways that people

don't anticipate with respect to Iran uh

president Trump has reportedly made some

strong statements to um prime minister

Netanyahu and I believe said some things

publicly about what Israel should do

Visa V Iran at the same time he's

clearly working very closely um however

informally he's had several

conversations already as uh as president

design it um with Vladimir Putin um so

just in the last week or two and uh and

Russia and Iran are clearly for the most

part working very closely together on a

number of fronts um how do the Saudis

who also have strong relationships with

Trump and uh with others in his family

um and the crown pin prince in

particular that way how will they just

toose their relationships um in this

context uh they are set to be a major

point of Leverage they've also been uh

been balancing their interests Visa V

China and the United States that's not

likely to disappear entirely recall that

it was China who uh brought the Iranians

and the Saudis together for an initial

agreement uh a couple years ago um and

uh and so watching where and how all of

those actors interact and how it may

play into what the Trump ad

Administration says they're going to do

would like to do starts pivoting on will

be important uh important to look at and

also bring me back to looking at what

bilateral of relationships were like

with each country in the region and how

that squares uh as well as looking at

where the different Regional

relationships can uh may may shift um

and as I said earlier there's a lot of

economic National Security uh

intersections when we analyze through

that phame

um as well that will probably have

implications for how this incoming

Administration approaches the region and

issues within it and and finally what

does this mean um and I don't mean as

finally but I think it's an important

question to ask what does this mean

obviously for Palestinians for the

Lebanese for those the many Innocents on

the the ground who have been um so

dramatically affected by the actions

that Hamas and Hezbollah uh took against

Israel and how Israel has responded to

them what will it take for Israel to

recognize that its own interests can

only be served by figuring out some

pathway forward for Palestinians for the

many many Palestinians and Lebanese who

are not affiliated with Hezbollah or

Hamas and uh and that being able to

defeat Hamas ultimately requires having

some plan some Vision going forward uh

for Palestinians that is viable and

whether a country like the Saudis

whether the Crown Prince will recognize

that he potentially has tremendous

leverage to push for that kind of

approach those are all open questions uh

but important to analyze each of these

actors and what their interests are and

how you might navigate to that as I said

coming back to where I started um at the

same time ensuring that those who are

very concerned about uh irreparable

damage in the United States or in the

world have plans to be able to counter

or stop um things that might be going

actions that might be going in that

direction so with that I'll I'll close

off okay thank you so much for that

terrific analysis uh let me go back to

Jay he was on his third point when he

had a little internet glitch Jay why

don't you wrap up here and then we'll

we've got some

questions go ahead I I actually think

between uh uh Zev and Mara we we we

covered it my last point was just that

they were fairly conventional picks and

and you know I think Mara brings up a

very important point which is the Senate

leadership race and and the interplay

with with Congress there are

isolationist voices as as Mara said in

both parties um and you know there will

have to be some kind of equilibrium some

kind of balance achieved there okay uh

so let me thank all of our panelists and

let me invite Zev and Mara to turn their

cameras back on uh I'm going to get to

our first round of questions from the

audience we have some terrific questions

I would invite all of you please be

thinking about your questions usually

what happens is that we kind of get to

the last 10 minutes and all of a sudden

we get a lot of questions and we don't

have time to deal with all of them so

please uh type your questions in the Q&A

box um I uh will um kind of use my power

of the pulpit here to ask the first

question of all of you and then I'll

read uh three more questions much better

than mine from our Audience by the way

my question is really just about kind of

what's the back room parlor talk in

Washington uh in the New York Washington

Corridor about who might be filling some

of the subsidiary roles when it comes to

the Middle East North Africa region for

example any chatter about who might

become assistant Secretary of State for

near East Affairs any chatter about

Deputy secret deputy secretary of state

uh any chatter about who might become

the Middle East coordinator at the

National Security Council taking over

for Brett mcgurk uh who might uh will

there be a role for some of the people

that dealt with the region in the first

Trump ad Administration such as Brian

hook who had the Iran file Jason

greenblat who had uh the Israel

Palestine file what are you hearing

about some of the other roles that are

key to the region that's my question uh

now let me get to some audience

questions for uh for you and then I'll

come to each of you in the order in

which you spoke first Zev then Jay then

Mara uh and you can answer all or any of

the questions and I'll give you each

about five 10 minutes to do so first

question is from Marina Ingman of the

United States and Marina asks uh about

not so much the Mina region per se but a

question that is now quite relevant in

Ukraine and may reverberate in the

Middle East region question president

Trump established a friendly

relationship with Kim Jong-un of North

Korea during his first term are there

any projected changes in American policy

Visa North Korea very good question

thank you Marina uh our dear friend um

longtime dear friend of seed uh Antonia

deu from Greece asks the following

question what are the

prospects of a second Trump

Administration reinvigorating the Trump

peace plan of early 2020 originally

titled quote peace to Prosperity a

vision to improve the lives of the

Palestinian people uh the so-called deal

of the century what are the chances of

trump

in round two reinvigorating that plan to

resolve the Israeli Palestinian conflict

as part and parcel Antonia asks of a

potentially broader peace deal between

Israel and Saudi Arabia and then our

final question for the first round comes

from our friend an Sor from Canada who

asks does the election of President

Trump or reelection of now

president-elect Trump increase the

probability that BB Netanyahu will

remain in power

indefinitely great questions uh let's

get some more from the audience while I

give our panel a chance to answer Zev

over to you first for five to 10 minutes

whatever you need I would like to

actually focus on the last question

first um because I think

that the possibility or probability of a

deal of the

century uh is not going to happen uh

right away primarily

because uh Biby Netanyahu is focused not

only on the bilateral Israeli us

relationship but more important for him

his domestic political

relationships and he in no way wants his

government to fall which means that

several of the Coalition Partners

primarily the minister of Treasury uh

smotr and benv have an outsized

say and

influence uh and political

power uh with uh with Biby Netanyahu

with the the Prime Minister and

therefore whatever we may think will

happen in the bilateral us Israeli

relationship or uh the Rel relationship

or the pressure that the United States

can

bring uh on either Hezbollah Les so

Hamas uh needs to be put in the context

primarily of Israeli domestic politics

very clearly and uh I think uh we need

to constantly focus on that secondly I

have not heard and therefore I cannot

answer your first question uh with

regard to who are some of the other

names

some of the other people that may be

brought into the administration on the

level of whether it's assistant

secretary for Middle East Affairs or

whatever so I am staying away from

that uh I do think that the bilateral us

Saudi relationship will play an outsize

role uh in in this and therefore will

affect the Israeli Palestinian

relationship because I think Saudi

Arabia the kingdom is not going to uh

enter into an agreement in which Israel

at least has to say something about the

future relationship with the

Palestinians whether it's a two-state

solution or or whatever without some

sort of indication from Israel of not

necessarily right now but without an

indication from Israel Saudi Arabia is

going to have very very I find going to

be very difficult uh into uh entering

into or normalizing a relationship

between the between Israel and Saudi

Arabia and the kingdom let me stop there

okay thank you Zev Jay over to you uh

thank you so regarding Antonia's

question um uh you know the landscape

has changed dramatically since since

that document was was unveiled as I

recall at the time it was pretty roundly

rejected by the Palestinians um I can't

imagine that they would find this any

more appealing today given the situation

on the ground and and which Palestinians

are are are we talking about um uh are

we talking about a reinvigorated

Palestinian Authority are we talking

about the current leadership in in rala

unanswerably I agree with with Zev uh

whatever the Saudis were willing to

accept then they are not likely willing

to accept um today without substantial

uh maybe not substantial but without

something meaningful a gesture uh toward

the uh toward the Palestinians um with

again given the the dealmaking nature of

uh the president elect he may he may

wish to make another uh go at it um you

know sort of related to the first

question in answering this um Jared

Kushner who was such a visible part of

the first Administration has been um I

think so far much much quieter I I don't

want to say fully absent because he's a

family member um and um and resides in

in in Florida um and I my expectation is

uh when there is an interest or a desire

to engage on an issue of importance to

him that he will that he will do so but

thus far we don't see any signals that

he's going to play a major role and I

think he and David frean and others were

such an integral um part of pushing of

creating the plan and then pushing it

and chasing you know Green plat as as

well so um I think they they may want to

use parts of it and dust it off uh and

reconfigure it but I think it's a harder

cell uh this you know this time around

and there will be other consider

erations to take into account um very

briefly on uh I I agree with what Zev

said I think for prime minister

Netanyahu it's largely uh domestic I

think he'll do all he can as we're

seeing his his legal uh case is uh

quickly approaching I think December 2nd

or 3D uh he is supposed to be back in

court he is now backtracking on a pledge

not to use the war as an excuse uh to

delay this um and is now saying I'm I'm

a wartime prime minister I can't

possibly prepare and be expected to put

on a uh proper defense so um we'll wait

to see my expectation is that he will do

all he can to

expand uh perhaps call for elections uh

and expand uh his base so that he is

really not held hostage by smotrich and

benav and others that doesn't mean I

think he'll be any less extreme

necessarily but I I don't think he even

feels comfortable so I think it's much

more about what happens domestically

much less about uh the relationship uh

between he and and Trump which we

understand is not all that terrific uh

to begin with so um again I also am not

hearing uh you know watch watch who's

making the pilgrimage down to Mar Lago

um and you know perhaps some of those

will will be announced um but I I'm not

hearing you know specific names of of

folks I think it's a very good question

but I think we'll have to wait a few

weeks to see who uh who is named okay

thank you so much am marrow over to you

and by the way audience thank you I have

four fabulous questions waiting for the

next round keep them coming Mara go

ahead sure thanks um I'll start we we're

Jay left off I concur with both Jay and

Z zon any names you hear right now I

wouldn't believe them um because folks

who are using the public stage to try to

spin themselves I I it didn't work on

National Security advisor it didn't work

on Secretary of State um I think it

shows and I think it'll be interesting

to watch uh Susie Wes's Chief of Staff

um in the white house because she's a

quiet behind the scenes operator

I from what I've heard and seen during

the campaign she also played this role

of of uh folks who are out there

publicly trumpeting themselves uh are

not the ones who ultimately uh get what

they want by doing so uh so uh we'll see

long it it lasts but but to me the

biggest sign of who's been announced so

far um goes to her power in the way that

she

operates um and uh and so that's what

I'd look at in the other roles so one

other small point is for the National

Security Council staff positions don't

hold that to like Brett mcgurk had this

role had the role of Middle East

coordinator each Administration coming

in each president has tremendous

flexibility in how they structure their

NSE staff how they structure their White

House staff at Large so there may be

people Jason Green blath did not have

the same title that that uh Brett mcgurk

had that others you know so so within

the White House there's a tremendous

amount of flexibility on roles and

titles um and the only titles that are

set are those that have to go for

confirmation at State at defense at at

other agencies um so the one thing I

think I would expect is that there I

would expect that there would be many

more political appointees for things

like the assistance secretary ships

whereas under the Biden Administration

they tried to and you can whether it

worked or not uh it was part of their

goal to have career folks um career

Foreign Service officers career civil

servants um in much more senior uh roles

uh that required confirmation I don't

think we'll see that uh with President

Trump my one caveat on that is actually

I was fascinated to see somebody I work

with at the University of Virginia uh

Steve mul is the vice uh Provost of for

Global Affairs there has taken leave to

run the Trump State Department

transition he is a career Foreign

Service Officer I still could not tell

you what his political you know um who

he might have voted for or not and so I

thought it was fascinating that he was

asked to come in to lead the transition

team um for the state department which

goes to you know we won't know until we

know but uh but prejudging some of the

stuff is probably a mistake um I just

think that I I agree that the

netanyahu's relationship with Trump is

not what will be determinative of

netanyahu's continued tenure it's a

domestic politics largely along the

lines of what's been outlined what I do

think is interesting is the parallels

between Trump and Netanyahu and how they

navigate um in what their interests are

listen they both very interested in

staying out of jail um and in using the

office of the prime ministership or the

presidency to uh to keep them out of

jail um in the case of the United States

the Supreme Court obliged uh by its

sweeping decision on presidential

immunity um going into this election but

um but putting it kindly the way that

both look at Economic Security and

National Security is Interlink is is one

area the ways that they deal with the uh

criminal charges against them and what

I've seen in terms of Netanyahu whether

he only said it publicly now or not it

was clear to me from October 7th on that

his major goal was looking at that this

as as maximizing his personal survival

um which meant you know being fully in

bed with uh with benir and smotri um and

Jade would know this much better than I

but I I would just say from what I was

seeing from the outside that very much

at the expense of hostages and hostages

lives um so I I I think couldn't be a

clear example in terms of the future

with North Korea and the relationship

listen I think that in terms of what

president Trump has already shown in how

he operates is that personal flattery is

an advantage um with and I think most

International leaders are have already

recognized that I think the North Korean

leader uh played it to a fairly well um

and uh and so I think that will be a

challenge I think it's going to be a

challenge for uh those who are Ed to

these senior national security positions

in the United States um whether it's

Marco Rubio or Mike waltz or whoever

becomes Secretary of Defense um because

in the two names thus

far

uh those folks are Savvy enough

International actors in Walt and and

Rubio that they know how others are

playing the game and frankly they also

see intelligence briefs which tell you

how to interact you know what's going to

be most effective in interacting with

other International leaders they know

every through the world is getting those

right now on how to best play president

Trump so I put the North Korea um

relationship in in that category but

it's also why I said looking at and

analyzing

China Russia North Korea Iran and their

interactions and what that may mean in

terms of what uh Trump's relationship

has been with each of them and how it

may differ in terms of the leaders in

each of those areas will will be be

important to watch as we try to figure

out um what impact uh in regions that we

care about as well I would also just

Echo though I think that the Saudis are

in a tremendously powerful position I

hope that uh that the crown prints that

MBS

uh holds out sees the importance of a

pathway to a Palestinian state of a

meaningful um uh meaningful progress on

that I don't think about negotiations

starting tomorrow so I you know I think

Zev and I may be saying the same thing

but in very different ways because I

think people here Pathway to the

Palestinian State think that that means

you know you're calling out the

negotiating team tomorrow I don't think

that first of I don't think that's what

the Biden Administration meant I don't

think that's what's going to be most

effective um I think there's a lot of

parallel paths that need to be pursued

but it's kind of what outcomes you're

getting towards I think the Saudis are

in a great position uh to be able to

leverage that I'm a little less

convinced that that's what they'll

consider um a priority at the end of the

day um but I do think that that over

time the reality of the fact that you're

not going to be a if you're Israel if

you're the rest of the region you're not

going to be able to shut down Hamas

without having viable Alternatives um I

I I think that reality will prevail I

just don't know over uh what period of

time um so I think I think I covered all

thank you thank you uh to our panel uh

I'm now going to plow through a about

six or seven questions from the audience

they're all terrific questions again

I'll go back to the panel you don't have

to answer every single one uh but I want

all of the members of the audience to

hear what their colleagues are asking

because these questions are just

terrific the first is from our friend

Mohamad meani from Jordan uh and I'll

summarize his question it's a bit

lengthy basically uh he is asking the

panel and Mora you you just Mara you

just talked about this a bit um to what

extent do the panelists believe uh the

Trump Administration incoming Trump

Administration will exercise leverage

over Israel to end the war in Gaza and

the war in Lebanon uh and I'll add to

the question to take tangible steps

toward Palestinian statehood in exchange

for uh MBS agreeing to normalize

relations with Israel possibly join the

abrahamic courts to what extent would

the Trump Administration be willing to

exert leverage on Israel to achieve that

second is from our friend uh Nimrod

novic from Israel uh he's asking from

the macro to the micro perspective

what's the likely response of the Trump

Administration to Israeli

annexationists making good on their

agenda in the West Bank and Gaza there

was some news this morning about

possibly um smotrich pushing for

annexation of of settlements so very

live issue right now uh the next

question is from eladi Habib Allah from

the United Arab Emirates who asks what

are the prospective policies regarding

Red Sea security Horn of Africa of the

incoming Trump Administration and do we

know whether the incoming Administration

has any clear plan to stop the ongoing

terribly destructive conflict in the

Sudan next question from m

sazali from the Netherlands how does the

panel see the chances of a nuclear deal

with Iran during a SE second Trump

presidency and now let me move uh well I

do have a couple of more uh we've got

about 40 minutes so I think I'll hold

these remaining questions for a final

round I'll give each of you again figure

five to seven minutes to leave time for

a final round of questions uh and this

time uh I'll go back and begin again

with our friend

Zev with regard to the question of trump

exerting leverage on

Israel um it all depends on whether he

has something with Saudi

Arabia uh and I do believe

that they are

focused uh well at least as people are

focused on the possibility of an an

agreement with Saudi Arabia and

therefore Saudi Arabia has and I agree

with Mara Saudi Arabia has a tremendous

amount of uh leverage with the United

States on what they would need in order

to enter into some sort of agreement

with Israel whether it's normalization

or somewhat less than

normalization uh so I do believe

that there's more leverage that Saudi

Arabia has over the United States on

this issue than the United States has uh

over Israel uh at the end of the day

though

Netanyahu as we all have said is very

much

focused on his own

personal uh issues with uh with the uh

criminal issues uh that he's facing and

as Jay indicated technically is supposed

to uh respond to by December 2D third

although he's trying to push that off

because of the war now uh but I think

that is at the end of the day for any

leader to face any

indictment causes a big problem because

the last thing any of us are going to

think about if we have an indictment

hanging over our head at the end of the

when we get into bed at night is going

to be how do I deal with that what can I

do tomorrow that will lessen the

possibility of everything turning

negative to me and therefore I think

many many of the decisions that prime

minister Netanyahu is making uh is for

his own political his own political

survival uh and his own political

interest

um I would be surprised also if the

United

States or the Trump Administration and I

do not have any knowledge of what they

are discussing but I would be surprised

if they would agree to or frankly

allow uh Israel to uh

Annex uh the settlements on the West

Bank um

and I do not think that Rubio potential

Secretary of State

designate uh

is like former Secretary of State Pompeo

in

basically going along with almost

everything that Israel wanted uh so

think that there will be push back from

the United States uh if uh the

annexation issue really becomes serious

I know that SMUD said what he said

yesterday but I uh I don't see that

happening certainly not in the near

future uh I don't have anything to

regard with regard to the nuclear deal

on Iran with Iran look it was Trump who

pulled out of the

jcpa uh and look where Iran is today uh

Visa where they were

three years ago for no actually seven

years ago now uh whether or not there

are any lessons to be learned from what

happened as a result of the US pulling

out of the jcpoa I don't know whether

the new secretary of state is focusing

on that right now but I don't

see

uh any possibility of the United States

or the Trump

Administration uh pushing to reset the

nuclear deal with Iran now the weakness

of Iran because of what hap what's

happening in Lebanon now and what

happened in uh and with Hamas uh if they

are indeed feeling weak then they may

come up with something but I don't see

that happening so I think the nuclear

deal with Iran is off the table for the

foreseeable certainly for the

foreseeable

future he thank you Zev Jay over to you

I'll try and make this quick because I

agree largely with what with what Zev

has said um I think there's already been

some chatter here on Washington DC about

the desire of some and BB's

Administration to move quickly on the

issue of West Bank annexation and

quietly uh there have been folks

suggesting that not so fast especially

if this uh could potentially interfere

with some of the other priority agenda

items of the

administration um you know that's a

misread on the part of the right-wing in

Israel to think that they now have car

lunched to do what they want within this

Administration um and again everything

as we've seen before tends to be or many

things tend to be very personal when it

comes to this particular president or

president-elect now um and uh a lot of

it may depend on the the nature of the

discourse between him and the and and

the Prime Minister um uh

another factor I think in that

is he campaigned largely on the issue of

no Wars right there were no wars during

my first term the Democrats get in and

now you know the world's on fire and

we're going to go back to no Wars well

that can mean you know many things but I

think there certainly is some

expectation that he will try and um

reign in zinski or tell him that the

clock is is is ticking and I think a

similar message will be delivered to the

prime minister of Israel this cannot be

endless this needs to to stop there are

also differing voices potentially that

he may feel beholden to Arab American

and Muslim voices certainly some within

his own family now and I don't think we

should discount the potential impact I'm

not saying they're going to uh be

responsible for crafting policy but

again from past experience we do know

that they do have the ability to you

know to to have impact um and these are

largely unpopular Wars um focusing back

on what he wants to focus on here at

home which is the economy uh we know

that it's far cheaper to provide foreign

aid and to provide assistance to Ukraine

than engaging in a war ourselves uh and

certainly avoiding uh you know

potentially a wider uh uh configration

uh on the European continent or or in

the Middle East uh um but for the

average American uh recovering from

hurricanes in North Carolina and Florida

and elsewhere that calculation May not

be as understandable um or as apparent

so um I think there will be an effort to

try and and shut down the you know the

conflicts as they are right now Mara

said something very many things

interesting but one thing that she said

that caught my ear was the relationship

between the president elect and and

Putin um and maybe there in lies the key

to some kind of progress viav Iran um as

Ze said Iran is weakend the Crown Jewel

uh Hezbollah has been decimated a lot of

the other proxies have also been

degraded um and they may be looking for

um some kind of opportunity to sort of

come in from the cold to a degree um

again um I think it was in many in many

respects a mistake to pull out of an

agreement without having something to

replace it right and we see what the

Iranians have done over uh during this

intervening time hopefully um Zev

mentioned learning from past mistakes

hopefully this Administration um will

will learn the lessons of that and um

referencing the people that have been uh

suggested taking key positions in the

foreign policy Arena again they have

experience they have background they

have knowledge uh and an understanding

of why it's important to put something

uh hopefully in in place more robust and

perhaps the relationship with Putin uh

which I think many Americans view as a

as a negative could be leveraged into

some kind of positive position Visa uh

the Iranians can't comment on the Red

Sea in the Horn of Africa just not smart

enough and educated enough on that issue

um and I think I'll leave it there okay

thank you Jay and Mara before I turn it

over to you uh we'll do one more round

of questions I've got four in the queue

uh for our audience please if you have a

question Now's the Time type it in the

Q&A box at the bottom of the screen Mara

over to you thanks I'll just say on the

Red Sea and and Horn of Africa I think

we've really got to see uh who he names

as uh his secretary of defense alect

that's that's largely for the United

States um uh a defense department

military matter and there and we have

resource challenges this goes to some of

the points I made about Ukraine about

what we can do in other places frankly

about uh the continu if Israel continues

at its current Pace what what it needs

from the United States and the fact that

our defense industrial base uh our

industrial base r at large uh needs to

uh be improved in a variety of ways but

we we are having trouble in producing

the amount of uh equipment that we need

to keep in stores for the United States

um and the 155 is a particular example

of that and that Ukraine needs and that

Israel needs and and we are largely with

uh with Brits others some in the region

uh defending International waterways

right now in terms of the Red Sea and

the Horn of Africa and so this again

goes to the link between economic

security and National Security and so

there'll be people briefing president

Trump on some of these interactions the

idea that um you just cut a deal uh on

Ukraine and uh and that ultimately that

will give Russia a huge amount including

Russia's license to continue to do this

in other places um and in ways that very

directly uh endanger us interests and

that may require us boots on the ground

um and so so ending Wars tomorrow not

clear what you what you're actually

ending or not and in which ways when you

cut deals um and the same May apply in

different ways I I share the view that

that uh Trump has certainly been public

about the fact that he thinks the

imagery uh that's coming out of Gaza and

uh Lebanon is horrendous and that

Netanyahu that goes to his advice to

nety you need to wrap this up quickly

but what that means and again how you

wrap up without having a forward plan um

is real the real where the real question

will come and to me this also goes to to

nimrod's uh very good question about uh

whether we'll see annexation or the kind

of public claims for and reexpansion I

actually view that that's less going to

be first I don't think the United States

is in the position even though everyone

always thinks we are to say you have a

green light on this you have a a red

light on that and then the country we're

saying it to just

automatically acknowledges and acts in

the way that we want I just whether it's

whether it's Trump or Biden that's not

power the United States has um and uh

though diplomacy is the art of letting

others have it your way it's an art and

and not a science and not a black and

white what I to me the biggest um

impediment to that kind of anation

happening are the I don't know where

Israel gets the resources to stay in

Gaza to reoccupy Gaza there's all sorts

of reasons that prime minister Chiron

removed the military and moov settlers

out of Gaza in 2005 um and yes and it

was in combination with close

relationships with the Bush

Administration and encouragement to

execute on that plan but it was also a

resource issue um for Israel and for its

future and and if you already have

reserv is serving three quarters of a

year and away from again the economy and

the Israeli economy showing the signs of

it what do you think is going to happen

if you go forward with annexation and

have to defend Mo settlers back in in

the case of Gaza or reinforce the

defense in both West Bank and Gaza um

how that and that may interact with

whether there's a grand deal to be had

with Iran there's certainly press

reporting on that today um that

moderates supposedly within Iran are

talking about you know being able to get

a deal with the Trump Administration I

think Russia is key in this and watching

I took note of the fact that Ron durmer

went to Russia supposedly for

conversations about Lebanon I would be

shocked if uh those conversations were

only about Lebanon um and so there may

be you know various people are looking

again at how you move different how

different actors on the chess board will

move and it's a three-dimensional game

so I I think it I'll be watching closely

on how the uh iron stuff plays out and

goes to how the relationship with Russia

plays out as

well great thank you terrific uh

comments from the panel as always Jay I

see your virtual hand is up did you want

to intervene for a minute well just that

there if you can hear me all right I I

think the communication's a little uh

spotty on my end but um breaking news

that President elect intends to nominate

former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

as ambassador to Israel ah okay so for

the Israelis in the audience that's a

very very important piece of news um uh

quite interesting not what we were

expecting and um perhaps that's

consistent with what Mara was telling us

before those who were out there

trumpeting their chances um maybe end up

um without a job at the end of the day I

say that's also a huge batt of the

evangelicals and people should look at

it that way for those thinking that you

know in terms of whose interests are

prevailing for Israel in the domestic

United States look at evangelicals in

their vote yeah very very very good

point excellent point um okay we have uh

four remaining questions which I will

pose now to the panel uh and then we'll

take about five minutes or so from each

of you six minutes and that will bring

us near to the end when I'll have some

closing comments uh the first two of the

four are from um single person our very

very dear friend Dalia shindin from

Israel uh her first question is what is

the likelihood and you've addressed this

a bit already panel but maybe you could

go into a little bit more detail what's

the likelihood that David fredman former

ambassador to Israel in the first Trump

Administration uh a lawyer from New York

City bankruptcy lawyer from New York

City what's the likelihood that he will

take a high level position on uh Middle

East on the Middle East file or even a

broader foreign policy role in the new

administ Administration and if so could

the administration conceivably follow

his more recent plan for uh Israel which

essentially cancels out any sort of

Palestinian self-determination and

finalizes full Israeli annexation you've

addressed these issues but perhaps you

could U make a fine point here about

Dalia's first question Dalia's second

question is what is the likelihood of a

scenario in which the Trump

Administration gives Israel a proquo a

free hand in Gaza in return for

constraints in the regional uh Iran

situation to avoid an allout Regional

War so we'll let you do what you want in

Gaza in exchange for you not for example

attacking the Iranian nuclear

installations and risking allout

Regional War um next uh question from

Marian Klein in the United States what

is your take on Trump's promise to bring

the hostages home and I'm really glad

that this issue was raised given that we

have uh Jay here with us and then our

last question oh no another one just

came in so second to last um from yonas

anastasakis from Greece does the victory

of the new president- elect put in

danger the American checks and balances

system that's we could spend a year on

that question that's a really really

profound question uh and then finally

from chak KU Kuan from the United States

forgive me if I mispronounced your name

um any hope that Trump's election will

help in electing a Lebanese president

given that the office of the presidency

of Lebanon has been vacant for the last

two years uh and if you could address

the how that plays in uh to the

pressures from Iran hasbalah and Syria

all acting on Lebanon and then finally

last question this one also just just

came in in the last 30 seconds from MOA

inaji in Morocco will the new

Administration be able to stop the war

in Palestine and Lebanon and will the

new Trump Administration accept a

two-state solution for the Israeli

Palestinian conflict uh let me thank our

audience for your superb questions we

have 20 minutes left here's what we're

going to do uh I'm going to give about

four minutes to each speaker uh not

enough time to address all the questions

of course in detail but pick those that

you want to focus on four minutes per

speaker and then I'll wrap up at the end

and Z will to you first I don't want to

address uh any particular individual

joining or not joining the

administration so uh as much as I

respect uh

Dalia uh I first of all I don't know and

even if I did know I wouldn't say

whether or not an individual is going to

join the administration I would tend to

think

that when it comes to foreign

policy I think that this the secretary

of the secretary of state will have a

lot to say I don't think it is going to

be a purely political

decision uh on the other hand I think

that the

relationship that Netanyahu had and has

with Biden is going to be a very

different relationship that he will have

uh and will have with uh with uh

president Trump

and I'm specifically focusing on the

issue of he was much more flippant and

much more willing to push back with

Biden on whatever the issue may be he

will be much much much more careful in

pushing back if he knows that this is

what Trump wants and it's not just one

of his designes or one of the people uh

SE assistant sex State uh asking asking

Israel to do ab uh AB or C Trump will

have the upper

hand with the prime minister of Israel

for the foreseeable

future uh and I think everything that

we're saying needs to we need to keep

that in the back of our heads because I

really believe that uh with regard to uh

Israel uh

I attacking Iran again this goes back to

the relationship the bilateral

relationship between not only Israel and

the United States but between the Prime

Minister and the president and I I I

think that the United States will have

much more

leverage on what the prime minister of

Israel wants to do than the current

administration had and has for the next

two months uh over uh over Israel and I

frankly think that's a positive because

as U Mara pointed out before this

President no more

Wars there were no Wars when I was

President four years ago

uh and therefore I think uh uh he will

uh unless something egregious happens he

will be able to um I don't want to use

the word tie Israel but he will have

tremendous he tremendous

influence uh if not veto power over what

Israel may or may not want to do on Iran

on

Iran okay thank you Zev Jay so uh very

very quickly one as it relates to

Lebanese um president again I think

first of all you'll see even in these uh

final two months of the Biden

Administration I think a serious effort

to try and um take advantage of uh the

the reshuffle uh the the the degrading

of hezb and so forth in a real effort to

try and extend

1701 and to um create opportunities for

the Lebanese Army to move South whether

or not there's uh an ability to to

disarm the remaining uh armaments of of

hezb remains to be seen but I certainly

think that a part of um the the priority

for the current Administration and I

expect for the Trump Administration will

be to create some measure of stability

and part of that of course would be to

to fill the position of President which

has been uh uh unfilled for for quite a

while um the last thing is really

regarding the the hostages um you know

in my view it really comes down to to

two parties Hamas and the prime minister

of of Israel and so I I think the Biden

Administration has pushed uh very very

hard on um uh on uh on parties uh I

won't say necessarily both parties

there's different leverage that they

have with with with each Next To None

with one some with the other I think

there's been inconsistent

um pressure uh pushed um and I think the

the primary mediators being Egypt and

and and cutter um can't want a deal more

than the participants uh to this

conflict them themselves so um um my

guess is that they will still U utilize

the good offices of of both the

Egyptians and the cutteries to try and

do all they can to to bring both parties

to the table obviously we've heard that

the the cutteries have uh have I'd say

uh rethought uh the the utility of

having the political leadership of Hamas

remain in Cutter uh and have questioned

whether or not they will continue in

mediation uh role that they've been

playing um from the perspective uh that

I've been um able to to to take part in

over the last year I think their role is

critical um and um they're they're

they're trusted by the Israelis never

mind the itical chatter that you hear

from uh from certain offices um there's

a long-standing relationship there

between the Israeli intelligence

Community uh and uh and the cutteries

and more than that they've delivered 109

individuals are back home because of

primarily cutter mediation now they

can't flip a switch um you know back to

Mara's description uh United States

can't say to a country do this

Greenlight this you know and and I get

all the time why don't the cutteries

tell Hamas to do X Y and Z it's not that

simple they don't give orders and those

orders are you know they don't even have

direct communication with those on the

ground in Gaza um it's it's it's much

more complex than that um but I I have

every reason to believe that the Trump

Administration will rely upon the same

uh uh same countries to to help with

this mediation and we hope that they're

brought home uh without another day's uh

uh without another day

wasted andj before I go to Mara any can

you share with us we're this is public

and we're being recorded so understand

if you can't but any sense of how many

of the hostages are still

alive I think I'm not privy that kind of

information I'm not sure if anyone

truthfully is um um but each day that

passes uh obviously involves more

risk thank you so much Jay um Mara will

come to you as our final uh up speaker

and then I will take a couple of minutes

at the end go ahead Mara thanks thanks

Steve um I just want to pick up on on

one point that Jay made about the uh

important of the role of the cutteries

and I bring that up they obviously made

an announcement over the last couple

days that they were stepping back

frankly because not neither of the

parties uh who are decision makers were

interested at this point ready to make a

deal but I think someone earlier in this

conversation suggested somehow the

Saudis would step into the Cutter's role

I think that that's not an accurate view

to me of how the Saudis would use their

leverage if they're smart and they they

want a a way going forward it will be to

find ways to ideally shift the

incentives of the the two entities the

decision makers but with cutter

continuing in in that role I mean even

more than Egypt they really have

developed uh a deep expertise in how to

get this stuff done and partic not just

with the these parties but with respect

to hostages in in a lot of places um so

I would say that um on Iran and Iran's

nuclear capability I just want to do a

little bit of and on the Assumption Zev

I did not say that that Donald Trump

would not have wars in his

administration I understand that he has

said that publicly but I I think uh it

goes to a misperception about what is in

the control of the president of the

United States and what is not and you

get tested on is how you react um not

necessarily what your campaign promise

has has been um and

so the ability to stop conflicts

throughout the world versus whether

you're putting US military um in the

midst of it or whether you're continuing

to defend the waterways the

international shipping lanes or you're

going to retract from that role there's

a number of hard decisions that that

come into play when you're actually in

office and so just as one example during

the campaign period president Trump on

the record told Israel they should go

after Iran's nuclear capabilities um he

may now think it's better to have a deal

he said that publicly the other thing

people folks should keep in mind is that

Israel can't actually act in that way

without specific uh support from the

United States specific military support

and so whoever's in the administration

needs to be on board in one way or

another with executing a plan like that

when he wasn't in charge of making those

decisions president Trump uh he

certainly encouraged Israel to take that

kind of action when he has to live with

the consequences of it um I it'll be

interesting to see but I'm I would guess

there are voices among his team that

argue both sides of that uh quite

strongly um and it also goes to I guess

what I want to address most though is is

Dalia's uh question not on Personnel uh

but on you know there there's not a deal

I don't know what Dalia is Imagining the

idea that that uh first of all that the

United States could say to Israel do

whatever you want in Gaza and Hamas just

stay out of uh a regional War goes to

the points Jan made it's it's not how

the United States role works but beyond

that there is not

a I think it the calibration that Israel

doing whatever it wants uh freehand in

um Gaza and in

Lebanon means that you can deal with

Iran however you'd like ignores where

the real life interactions are between

Hamas Hezbollah Iran that's not going to

go away um and so uh a I don't think

that the a future Trump Administration

is likely to agree however conceptually

with that kind of quid proquo for a

variety of reasons that we've talked

about and B I don't think it's possible

anyway even if they thought even if they

were they were interested that's not not

how the facts on the ground would would

tend to uh play out the one other point

I don't know if it was in a direct

question or if I just saw it in the

lineup there was somebody who asked

about you know basically wouldn't

president Trump now be more sensitive to

arab-american voices maybe maybe that's

implied by the fact that Tiffany Trump

one of his daughters is married uh to

somebody who's Lebanese American um or

you know the the the meetings he had

during the campaign with some leaders in

Michigan I think anyone who believes

that should go and buy a bridge in

Brooklyn at whatever price is given them

look at how the guy operates look at uh

what he says and what he does and um I

think there are going to be a lot of

people who look at their votes in

November and have significant buyers

remorse and uh what we're gonna have to

do this goes back to my point at the

beginning is uh hold him accountable for

the things he breaks that can be fixed

in various ways and do everything

possible and this goes to the question

about checks and balances in the US

system do everything possible and we

still have a lot of opportunity to

litigate and we're good litigators in

this country and courts throughout the

country um there are various ways in

terms of checks and balances and also in

the Senate if if uh Senate Majority

Leader gets elected who is an

institutionalist um again there's still

checks and balances in the system even

when one party controls all three houses

and there are a lot of people laser

focused on how you keep um things from

being broken that are not

fixable yes uh let me thank you Mara and

I was just going to add there that as an

example of what you're talking about we

had a Republican senator from Alabama in

a democratic controlled Senate holding

up more than a hundred of President

Biden's appointments to the Pentagon

those practiced in the Parliamentary

intricacies of the Senate can be quite

good even when they're in the minority

at obfuscating delaying obstructing and

we may see more of that even uh as early

as February late January February March

of next year we have to keep our eye on

that of course um all right well we're

at the end let me Express on behalf of

UCLA CED my sincere gratitude to our

three terrific wonderful panelists this

was a great discussion uh really

appreciate your time uh and your

commentary also my sincere appreciation

to our audience for your superb

questions uh as always I want to thank

again our co-sponsors here at UCLA the

Burl Center the nazerian center and the

department of public policy and I want

to thank our wonderful staff uh salame

mohajer Emily pistol and Laura Lee who

worked very very hard behind the scenes

I think we've had four webinars or five

webinars this academic quarter not a

complaint from any of our staff they've

done superb work luckily for them this

is the last planned webinar for the

current academic quarter we'll be back

after the first of the the year with

more um and uh I just want to express my

gratitude uh to them for their really

really terrific work um if you have not

already joined our mailing list please

send us a message uh our uh email

address is there at the bottom of the

screen that you see before you CED

international.

ucla.edu I'll bring this session to a

close uh with my best wishes to uh all

of you for the upcoming holiday season

uh for uh the turn of the Year 2024 to

2025 we'll be back next year with more

webinars and we look forward to seeing

you then thank you all very very much