Is Decline in Athletes' Performance Truly a Slump?: A Regression to the Mean Perspective

Lecture in Korean

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Ok Jin Choi, Professor of Physical Education, Kyungnam University

Thursday, April 23, 2026
11:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Bunche Hall, Rm 10383

In sport contexts, declines in athletes’ performance are often interpreted as “slumps,” with researchers and practitioners seeking psychological or situational explanations. However, a temporary decrease in performance cannot be unequivocally attributed to a slump. Phenomena such as the “sophomore slump” may reflect not only personal, social, or environmental influences but also the statistical principle of regression to the mean.

Regression to the mean refers to the tendency for exceptionally high or low performances to move closer to the group average in subsequent measurements. Thus, when a rookie achieves outstanding results in one season and performs less exceptionally in the next, the decline may represent a natural statistical adjustment rather than a purely psychological slump.

Performance declines are therefore likely shaped by both psychological factors and statistical regression effects. This talk will reexamine athletic performance decline from these two perspectives and proposes criteria to distinguish between psychological slumps and regression to the mean.

Special Instructions
Event is exclusive to CKS Visiting Scholars, graduate/undergraduate students, and faculty

Sponsor(s): Center for Korean Studies